Key Takeaways
- Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju says bitcoin’s PnL typically falls for about 18 months after a profit-taking cascade.
- Bitcoin’s downtrend began in October 2025 and won’t reverse until unrealized profits rebuild, Ju argues.
- Cryptoquant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flipped bullish on May 12, muddying the bear call.
Still Some Time To Go Till The Bears Retreat
Bitcoin’s bear market may still have a year or more to run, according to Cryptoquant founder and chief executive Ki Young Ju, who spelled out the timeline in a post on X. “Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months.” Ju wrote, using shorthand for aggregate investor profit and loss (PnL). “Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
His reasoning hinges on the direction of realized profits. Put simply, holders are still sitting on paper gains they are steadily cashing in, a dynamic that historically keeps pressure on price until that selling burns itself out. The PnL index he relies on blends several onchain valuation gauges (including the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio and net unrealized profit and loss) into a single trend line that peaked around mid-2025 and has been sliding since.
The warning extends a position Ju has pressed for much of the past year, as he first declared bitcoin’s bull cycle over in 2025, citing a widening gap between the asset’s realized capitalization and its market capitalization.
Not Everyone, Including Cryptoquant’s Own Data, Agrees
The bleak timeline is far from settled even inside Ju’s own firm, as Cryptoquant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, a signal that has historically coincided with the start of more constructive conditions.
Other analysts are more bullish still, with research firm K33 contending bitcoin’s roughly $60,000 February low already marked the maximum drawdown of this cycle (a decline of about 52% from the record $126,272 the asset printed on Oct. 6, 2025).
The split reveals a murky mid-cycle picture, because if Ju is right, traders face another grinding stretch before realized profits reset, and the next leg higher can begin. If the greening cycle indicator and steady ETF inflows win out, the bottom may already be in.
Either way, Ju has handed the market a clear tripwire to watch wherein the moment unrealized profits start climbing while realized profits fade, the 18-month clock he describes would finally be ready to flip.
