Quantum Panic Over Bitcoin (BTC) Is Premature, but the Clock Is Still Ticking

Bitcoin won’t be broken by quantum computers soon, but preparing the network for risks could take five to ten years.

Quantum computing is back in Bitcoin conversations, and it has sparked fresh concerns about its long-term impact on blockchain security.

The co-founder and Chief Security Officer of self-custody solution Casa, Jameson Lopp, said Bitcoin is safe from quantum computers, for now.

Quantum Panic?

In the latest tweet, Lopp said that quantum computers are not a near-term threat to Bitcoin, in an attempt to address the growing concerns around such risks. He noted that while researchers will continue monitoring advances in quantum computing, current technology is still far from being able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.

Despite this, preparing Bitcoin for a post-quantum future would not be quick or easy. According to Lopp, making careful protocol changes and coordinating a large-scale migration of funds across the network could take anywhere from five to ten years.

“We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”

Grayscale also echoed a similar sentiment last week in its recent report, and said that quantum computing risks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on crypto markets in 2026, despite recurring concerns around the technology’s long-term implications.

While sufficiently powerful quantum computers could theoretically break current cryptographic systems, the asset manager estimates that such capabilities are well beyond the near term, likely after 2030. Grayscale expects research into post-quantum cryptography and network preparedness to continue and potentially accelerate, but added these developments are unlikely to influence digital asset valuations or market performance in 2026 from an investment perspective.

Risks Are Being Underestimated

However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned that quantum computing poses a more immediate risk to blockchain cryptography than is often assumed, while assigning a 20% chance that quantum computers could break current cryptographic systems before 2030.

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Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin fund Capriole, also expressed concern that dismissing quantum computing risks could lead to severe consequences for Bitcoin. In a recent post, Edwards said a major bear market may be needed to force the community to take the threat seriously and push for network upgrades.

He stated that if Bitcoin fails to deploy a quantum-resistant fix by 2028, prices could fall below $50,000 and continue declining until the issue is resolved. The founder added that urgent action is needed as early as next year, and a failure to act could trigger the largest bear market in Bitcoin’s history, which could end up eclipsing past crises such as FTX.